Although the number of Malay turnouts in Kedah, Perlis and Pahang anti-Barisan Nasional rally was huge, it is still far from the real situation to describe them as Malay tsunami.
In the past few rallies, some of the “tsunami” was just over 3,000 participants.
To put it bluntly, in the joint production of “Malay tsunami” by Mahathir and Lim Kit Siang, the water is only one foot deep, how is it going to shake the regime of BN?
Before the dissolution of the Parliament, the DAP political rally in Teluk Intan and Seremban had attracted many people, but in Ayer Hitam only a few hundred attended such rally.
However, the “Malay tsunami” this time looked pale into insignificance compare with the 2013 “Chinese tsunami”. In the last general election, majority of the Chinese constituents voted for the oppositions, the percentage was as high as 85% to 90%, including voted for the PAS of which in the past they had resisted most.
It is impossible for Malay voters to rally against the BN this time. Because, according to past data, the number of anti-BN votes in successive general elections had never exceeded 55%.
It seems that the “Malay tsunami” will be difficult to emerge in the 14th general election. My reasons for this analysis are as follows:
Only PAS can call for big rally
- In the last general election, as high as 63% Malay electorates supported BN. Within five years of entering the administration of the Najib government, apart from the RM2.6 billion 1MDB “scandal”, the GST and high inflation rate, there is no “great force” to change the support of Malay voters to BN.
The most obvious being the number of Malay votes to BN did not reduce in the six major by-elections.
- During the last general election, Chinese supported PAS’ political idea and also had staged a great unity to get rid of Umno and Malay regime, forcing the Malays to also unite and had even at later stage, Umno had sought “cooperation” with PAS.
- In the last general election, the big rally organized by the Coalition for Clean and Fair Elections (Bersih) had seen thousands of people filled up the streets but majority of them were Malays, and it was relied mainly on the appeal of PAS. Until recently, Bersih had organized rally outside the Parliament building, but the number of turnout hardly reached 300, there were fewer than a hundred Malays. This shows that Malays are rather passive, hence, how will Malays rallied to become a tsunami?
- It is worth noting that only PAS has the ability to convene large-scale rallies, and they are the main force in the gathering of anti-government rallies.
- At present, the main political parties of the opposition alliance are mostly “commanders without soldiers”, including the PPBM which was temporary dissolved. The party has been established for a year and a half but has only managed to set up a few branches and divisions, how will it call on the masses and set off a Malay tsunami?
PAS “murdered” Malay tsunami
- With PAS announced that it would contest comprehensively even involves itself in three-cornered fight, the Malay tsunami has already been “murdered”. Without PAS, Pakatan Harapan not only is unable to launch the Malay tsunami, but its votes will also be split due to PAS’ contest which will help Umno to win in dangerous areas.
- With the prices of primary commodities like palm oil showed positive trend, Felda settlers live in peace and work happily, except high inflation rate, there is no other better reason to launch the Malay tsunami.
It is believed that the Malay tsunami in 1999 when Anwar was arrested is very difficult to repeat itself.
- The Malays have long been directly taken care of by the BN president Najib, including the B40 and numerous programmes and projects that directly benefit the Malays.
In addition, Najib is also smart enough to focus the attention of the Malay masses on propaganda that is good for Umno, deliberately divert their attention on 1MDB.
- The urban Malays are also convinced, the reason being Najib has constantly innovating the way of taking care of the urban Malays, all kinds of programmes are available to urban Malays.
Besides the strong BN, at the same time opposition parties are also weak, even the decision to use a common logo has been dragged on for a long time, how to fight a battle is already a problem, let alone to launch the Malay tsunami.
In writing here, one cannot help asking: is it really so easy to trigger off a Malay tsunami?